内蒙古东南部暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估与区划——以通辽市为例     

李思慧 《内蒙古气象》2019,(1):23-28

文章选取通辽市各气象站点气象数据、基础地理信息数据、历史灾情数据、第二次土地调查数据及相关社会经济等统计数据,基于自然灾害风险原理,利用数理统计、层次分析法及空间叠加分析等方法,提出了通辽市暴雨洪涝灾害风险评价指标体系,得到通辽市暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估空间分布图。结果表明:高风险区主要分布在通辽市北部山区、中东部地区及偏南部地区,包括扎鲁特旗鲁北镇、科尔沁区、科左中旗东南部及库伦旗东南部;而科左后旗大部地区易形成由短时强降水引发的洪涝,为次高风险区;低风险区及次低风险区主要分布在通辽市中部、西南部地区,包括开鲁县、奈曼旗北部、科左中旗西部。  相似文献   

Flood insurance arrangements in the European Union for future flood risk under climate and socioeconomic change     

《Global Environmental Change》2019

Flood risk will increase in many areas around the world due to climate change and increase in economic exposure. This implies that adequate flood insurance schemes are needed to adapt to increasing flood risk and to minimise welfare losses for households in flood-prone areas. Flood insurance markets may need reform to offer sufficient and affordable financial protection and incentives for risk reduction. Here, we present the results of a study that aims to evaluate the ability of flood insurance arrangements in Europe to cope with trends in flood risk, using criteria that encompass common elements of the policy debate on flood insurance reform. We show that the average risk-based flood insurance premium could double between 2015 and 2055 in the absence of more risk reduction by households exposed to flooding. We show that part of the expected future increase in flood risk could be limited by flood insurance mechanisms that better incentivise risk reduction by policyholders, which lowers vulnerability. The affordability of flood insurance can be improved by introducing the key features of public-private partnerships (PPPs), which include public reinsurance, limited premium cross-subsidisation between low- and high-risk households, and incentives for policyholder-level risk reduction. These findings were evaluated in a comprehensive sensitivity analysis and support ongoing reforms in Europe and abroad that move towards risk-based premiums and link insurance with risk reduction, strengthen purchase requirements, and engage in multi-stakeholder partnerships.  相似文献   

The relative influence of climate and housing development on current and projected future fire patterns and structure loss across three California landscapes     

《Global Environmental Change》2019

Climate and land use patterns are expected to change dramatically in the coming century, raising concern about their effects on wildfire patterns and subsequent impacts to human communities. The relative influence of climate versus land use on fires and their impacts, however, remains unclear, particularly given the substantial geographical variability in fire-prone places like California. We developed a modeling framework to compare the importance of climatic and human variables for explaining fire patterns and structure loss for three diverse California landscapes, then projected future large fire and structure loss probability under two different climate (hot-dry or warm-wet) and two different land use (rural or urban residential growth) scenarios. The relative importance of climate and housing pattern varied across regions and according to fire size or whether the model was for large fires or structure loss. The differing strengths of these relationships, in addition to differences in the nature and magnitude of projected climate or land use change, dictated the extent to which large fires or structure loss were projected to change in the future. Despite this variability, housing and human infrastructure were consistently more responsible for explaining fire ignitions and structure loss probability, whereas climate, topography, and fuel variables were more important for explaining large fire patterns. For all study areas, most structure loss occurred in areas with low housing density (from 0.08 to 2.01 units/ha), and expansion of rural residential land use increased structure loss probability in the future. Regardless of future climate scenario, large fire probability was only projected to increase in the northern and interior parts of the state, whereas climate change had no projected impact on fire probability in southern California. Given the variation in fire-climate relationships and land use effects, policy and management decision-making should be customized for specific geographical regions.  相似文献   

扬州江都区邵伯农田土壤环境质量及生态风险评价     

胡秀艳  谢红青  景山 《江苏地质》2023,47(4):412-419

选取扬州邵伯地区作为研究区,根据评价标准（GB 15618—2018）对其农田土壤环境质量及生态风险进行评价。研究区农田土壤中8种重金属元素平均含量均低于农用地污染风险筛选值,除Ni外其余7种重金属元素的平均含量均超过江苏土壤平均背景值,其中Hg含量均值为江苏土壤平均背景值的2.16倍;通过对比内梅罗指数法和综合指数法评价结果,认为综合指数法能更客观准确地反映研究区农田土壤环境质量状况,结果显示研究区农田土壤轻度污染以上样本占总样本的2.35%;研究区农田土壤属中度生态风险,综合潜在风险指数平均值为200.56,主要贡献因子是Hg。  相似文献   

江苏某材料厂周边农田土壤钼污染特征及农作物健康风险评价（84）     

范健  黄顺生  崔晓丹 《江苏地质》2023,47(1):84-90

为了解江苏某材料厂金属冶炼活动引发的重金属污染风险,采集周围农田土壤、小麦和水稻籽实样品,确定Mo含量及其在土壤中的形态,采用地质累积指数和富集因子指标评价土壤中钼的污染风险,采用健康风险指数评价小麦、稻米中Mo的健康风险。结果表明,农田土壤中Mo含量在0.50～63.2 mg/kg之间,其平均值5.70 mg/kg远高于全省平均值0.65 mg/kg,表层土壤出现了中度—高度富集,近70%的样点受到不同程度的钼污染,污染范围距该厂300 m,污染深度>1.5 m。土壤中的Mo具有较高的生物有效性,在小麦、水稻籽实中显著富集,主要与土壤具有较高的全Mo含量以及土壤呈碱性有关。基于EPA的健康风险评估方法,食用当地稻米、小麦会产生较大的健康风险。  相似文献   

Exploring the factors affecting urban ecological risk: A case from an Indian mega metropolitan region     

《地学前缘(英文版)》2023,14(1):101488

Assessment of ecological risk (ER) is a key approach to adapting and mitigating ecological deterioration in cities of developing countries. In developing countries, the ecological landscapes such as vegetation cover, water bodies, and wetlands are highly vulnerable due to rapid urban expansion. Therefore, urban ER (UER) assessment and its drivers are crucial to guide ecological protection as well as restoration. This study aims to explore the spatiotemporal pattern of UER and the impact of urban spatial form on UER in the Kolkata Megacity Region (KMR), India. This study developed a UER index and used spatial regression models across the urban centres. The ER has been assessed at city scale as well as grid-scale (2 km × 2 km and 5 km × 5 km) from 2000 to 2020. The results showed that ER has substantially increased over the last 20 years. The urban centres with very high and high ER substantially increased, i.e. from 21.95% in 2000 to 31.70% in 2020. Kolkata and its surrounding urban centres were mostly characterized by very high and high ER. ER was influenced by spatial variables (such as land use and landscapes pattern). However, remote sensing parameters were weakly related to ER. The spatial lag model (SLM) (R² = 0.8686) was found to be better fit model than spatial error model (SEM) (R² = 0.8661) and ordinary linear regression model (OLS) (R² = 0.8641). Thus, the findings of the study can improve research and a comprehensive framework for urban ecological resources and provide a scientific basis for urban ecosystem planning and restoration. In addition to this, it will guarantee the sustainable utilization of urban ecosystems.  相似文献   

Potential seismic landslide hazard and engineering effect in the Ya’an-Linzhi section of the Sichuan-Tibet transportation corridor,China     

《China Geology》2023,6(2):228-240

The Sichuan-Tibet transportation corridor is located at the eastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, where the complex topography and geological conditions, developed geo-hazards have severely restricted the planning and construction of major projects. For the long-term prevention and early control of regional seismic landslides, based on analyzing seismic landslide characteristics, the Newmark model was used to carry out the potential seismic landslide hazard assessment with a 50-year beyond probability 10%. The results show that the high seismic landslide hazard is mainly distributed along large active tectonic belts and deep-cut river canyons, and are significantly affected by the active tectonics. The low seismic landslide hazard is mainly distributed in the flat terrain such as the Quaternary basins, broad river valleys, and plateau planation planes. The major east-west linear projects mainly pass through five areas with high seismic landslide hazard: Luding-Kangding section, Yajiang-Xinlong (Yalong river) section, Batang-Baiyu (Jinsha river) section, Basu (Nujiang river) section, and Bomi-Linzhi (eastern Himalaya syntaxis) section. The seismic action of the Bomi-Linzhi section can also induce high-risk geo-hazard chains such as the high-level glacial lake breaks and glacial debris flows. The early prevention of seismic landslides should be strengthened in the areas with high seismic landslide hazard.©2023 China Geology Editorial Office.  相似文献   

广东雷州半岛火山岩二氧化碳矿化封存潜力评估     

李鹏春  江静练  程锦辉  赵明辉 《高校地质学报》2023,29(1):76-84

火山岩的矿物固碳作用为减少大气中的二氧化碳(CO₂)提供了一种永久性的封存解决方案,是一种经济、安全的碳捕集封存(CCS)方式。中国火山岩分布广泛,但对火山岩固碳潜力的研究还很欠缺。文章选择广东省雷州半岛火山岩为研究区,利用MapGis软件,建立雷州半岛火山岩厚度分布的矢量地理信息数据库,插值得到三维网格化数据体;基于火山岩矿化封存机制和CO₂矿化封存潜力评估方法,对雷州半岛火山岩CO₂理论矿化封存潜力进行了计算。结果表明,雷州半岛火山岩总面积约3940 km²,总体积约257 km3,CO₂理论矿化封存量在19～459亿吨之间。其中以雷南火山岩区潜力最大,理论封存量为13～326亿吨;其次为雷北遂溪县以东、湛江市西部区域的火山岩区,理论封存量为2～56亿吨;东海岛区域火山岩,理论矿化封存量虽然不大(1.5～35亿吨),但因其与周边工业排放源较近,具有较好的源汇匹配条件,具备CCS潜力。研究结果不仅对于优选封存CO₂火山岩储集区带提供重要依据,同时为未来开...  相似文献   

我国陆相中高熟页岩油富集条件与分布特征     

赵文智  朱如凯  刘伟  卞从胜  王坤 《地学前缘》2023,30(1):116-127

我国相继在多个盆地陆相页岩油勘探中获得突破,展示了良好的发展前景。基于现阶段勘探认识,本文认为陆相页岩油富集主要条件是：(1)稳定且有规模和适宜热成熟度的富有机质页岩是重要物质基础,以TOC含量>2%,最佳为3%～4%、母质类型Ⅰ和Ⅱ₁型为主,R_o>0.9%或更高(咸化环境0.8%);(2)有一定容积规模的微纳米孔隙且具脆性的多类储层是重要条件,页岩储层有效孔隙度宜>3%～6%;成岩阶段偏低时,纯页岩段不是中高熟页岩油富集段,致密砂岩和混积岩黏土含量宜<20%;成岩阶段高时,页岩黏土含量可高至40%左右;(3)滞留烃数量大且品质好是重要保证,以S₁>2 mg/g为门限,最佳>4～6 mg/g;气油比>80 m³/m³,最佳150～300 m³/m³;(4)顶底板具封闭性保持超压且滞留足够多轻-中组分烃类。陆相页岩油分布特征是：(1)有外物质注入的深-半深湖相是页岩油主要富集区;(2)具备“四高...  相似文献   

川藏公路巴塘至拉萨段典型地质灾害危险性分析     

曹亮  叶唐进  陶伟 《地质与资源》2023,32(1):113-119

川藏公路巴塘至拉萨段沿线边坡地质灾害较为严重．根据多年来采集的边坡灾害数据,利用地理信息系统（GIS）综合插值等多种方法分析了该段公路沿线典型边坡地质灾害的危险性.研究表明：低度、中度、高度危险区占总里程的78.9%,总长度1 008 km,其中高度达到30.28%,而基本无危险区里程为270 km,占总里程的21.1%.通过野外复核,该分析结果较为合理可靠.  相似文献